Greensboro, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

796
FXUS62 KRAH 141942
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through tonight, during
which time a weak area of low pressure will track across
southeastern NC. A surface trough and weak backdoor cold front will
move across NC Friday and Friday night, with following dry and
seasonably warm high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Thursday...

Principal features of interest through tonight will be a series of
MCVs stretching through the Coastal Plain of NC to the Pee Dee of
SC, with the srn-most accompanied by a weak area of low pressure
that will track across sern NC, and offshore early Friday. Forcing
for ascent, and the focus for showers and storms, will result along
and just east of the track these feature through ern NC and the
adjacent, RAH Coastal Plain.

A belt of unseasonably strong, 30-35 kts of mid-level (700-500 mb)
wswly flow will provide adequate shear for at least transient
rotating/super-cells, particularly where surface winds back to nely
along and just north of the track of the surface low, and where
shear vectors and hodographs will consequently be elongated. Several
such cells, with 25-30 kt rotational velocities as low as ~3-5
thousand ft ARL, have already resulted in that parameter space over
the SC Pee Dee, where VWP-derived hodographs earlier at CAE and more
recently at LTX and MHX have sampled 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH -
adequate for a low-end tornado risk. SPC objective/meso-analysis
data appear to be under-representing this environment. This threat
should be confined in cntl NC over Sampson Co., and perhaps ern
Cumberland and Wayne Co. The greatest risk of excessive rain/flash
flooding (Slight/ Level 2 of 4) in these areas appears to be
materializing in a relatively more-concentrated area of convection
over Down East and Tidewater NC, where 12Z HREF neighborhood
probabilities for rainfall amounts were maximized.

Other, generally scattered showers and storms have developed in the
past few hours from the Blue Ridge to a lee trough from near RIC to
GSO to CLT. Convection in these areas, and immediately downstream in
a destabilizing environment over the NC Piedmont, will occur in an
area of weaker shear and steering flow to the west of the MCVs.
Associated slower cell motions in this environment, and a tendency
for backbuilding, will result in a risk of locally heavy rain and
isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in urban areas,
until around midnight. Additionally, higher DCAPE of up to 750 J/kg
in these areas may support strong to locally damaging downburst
winds from associated pulse cells until instability and low-level
lapse rates weaken this evening.

Otherwise, at least partial overnight clearing, and light nely flow
around the slow-passing surface low, will likely result in the
development of areas of low overcast and fog, with continued very
muggy conditions in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Thursday...

Nely flow will envelop cntl NC behind an area of low pressure that
will drift offshore and away from the NC coast Fri. Despite the nely
flow, it will remain moist and moderately-unstable with diurnal
heating well into the 80s. As such, one more day of scattered
showers/storms will result, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of
excessive rain/flash flooding supported by continued 125-150% of
normal PWs. Reinforcing nely flow behind a weak, backdoor cold front
should support widespread low overcast Fri night-Sat morning, with
low temperatures in the lwr-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

* Relatively dry Sunday and Monday, with a return of diurnally
  driven convection by mid/late week.

* Erin may make its closest pass of the NC coast Wed/Thu, while most
  guidance continues to keep it offshore.

Aloft, the center of the anti-cyclone will generally stay over the
srn/cntl Plains over the weekend, drifting slowly westward to over
the Four Corners by Tue/Wed where it will remain through at least
Thu. In the wake of a s/w passage Sat, the mid-level ridge will
build ewd into the area Sun/Sun night. Another s/w riding the ridge
may move across the area Sun night/Mon, but for now it appears to
just glance the area, weakening as it moves across the mid-Atlantic.
As the high shifts wwd, additional disturbances may track across the
region as they ride along its periphery. At the surface, a transient
ridge should slide slowly sewd across the area Sat/Sat night, while
a low sits off the Carolina coast. The ridge will shift offshore on
Sun, as a trough moves quickly sewd across the mid-Atlantic Sun
night and Mon. In the wake of the trough, high pressure may build
across the region once again Mon/Mon night. There is still some
uncertainty for Tue-Thu, both wrt the strength and location of the
ridge over the area and the interaction of that ridge with Erin as
it makes its approach. For now, most guidance shows the ridge
holding over the East Coast and Erin remaining offshore. However, it
is still a bit far out in the forecast for any certainties at this
time.

Precipitation: Some showers/storm will be possible on Sat, with a
relatively dry period expected Sun and Mon. As the ridge aloft
shifts westward and more disturbances track across the area, chances
for diurnal convection will increase, but for now remain near
climatology for Tue-Thu, noting the uncertainty mentioned above.

Temperatures: Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through Tue, perhaps
decreasing a bit mid/late week. Lows in the mid 60s to low 70s
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Mostly scattered, MVFR-based cumulus this afternoon may become
broken at any site but especially at FAY, where moisture transport
and convergence will be maximized ahead of an area of low pressure
that will track across the Pee Dee of SC and sern NC through this
evening. Showers and storms are also expected to maximize in
coverage along and near the track of that low, and related mid-level
disturbances above, and also along a surface trough stretching from
near RIC to GSO to CLT. A relative minimum in showers and storms
will probably result between these areas, including at RDU, where
widespread, multi-layered cloudiness and stratiform rain from mid-
level ceilings will result in cooler and more stable conditions.

At least partial overnight clearing, and light nely flow around the
slow-passing surface low, will likely result in the development of
LIFR-IFR stratus and areas of fog centered over FAY, RWI, and RDU,
with lower probability of occurrence/lesser coverage at INT and GSO.
Lifting and scattering to VFR, where low ceilings indeed develop,
will follow with daytime heating from mid-morning through early
afternoon Fri.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will settle south and across cntl NC
Fri-Fri night, with following, moist nely flow that will favor
widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings Fri night-early Sat. While widely
scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible along and
ahead of that front Fri, mainly dry conditions will follow for the
weekend. Another backdoor cold front may reinforce nely flow and the
risk of IFR-MVFR ceilings Sun night-early Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS